Improving Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (Using California as a Guide)

Edward H. Field

Published August 15, 2019, SCEC Contribution #9782, 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #027

This poster will discuss ways in which earthquake-rupture forecast models might be improved. Because changes are most easily described in the context of specific models, the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast UCERF3) and its presumed successor, UCERF4, is used as a basis for discussion. Virtually all of the issues and possible improvements discussed are nevertheless general, and should therefore be applicable to other regions as well. Two common themes are a need for better epistemic uncertainty representation and the potential utility of physics-based simulators. Given the large number of possible improvements, coupled with challenges in defining the potential value of each, which will vary among uses, community feedback is invaluable in terms of setting priorities. That said, we should also strive to define more objective valuation metrics.

Key Words
earthquake forecast

Citation
Field, E. H. (2019, 08). Improving Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (Using California as a Guide). Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)